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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 30, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Los Angeles Kings

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

CGY winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK0717010124
CGY1111703221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:21CGYRene BourqueAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Pardy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:15LAKScott ParseAssists: Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:48CGYCraig ConroyGWGAssists: Rene Bourque, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 5:26CGYDion Phaneuf: Boarding5 min
  2. P1 5:26LAKSean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 5:26LAKSean O'Donnell: Charging2 min
  4. P1 5:26CGYDion Phaneuf: Game misconduct10 min
  5. P1 10:51LAKRaitis Ivanans: Interference2 min
  6. P1 10:51LAKRaitis Ivanans: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 10:51LAKRaitis Ivanans: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 10:51CGYAaron Johnson: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 10:51LAKRaitis Ivanans: Misconduct10 min
  10. P1 11:41CGYCurtis Glencross: Misconduct10 min
  11. P1 11:41LAKBrad Richardson: Misconduct10 min
  12. P1 17:24LAKTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 3:03CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 3:03LAKSean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 3:19LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
  16. P2 4:49CGYMark Giordano: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  17. P2 5:54LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
  18. P2 7:22LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  19. P2 7:22CGYRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
  20. P2 13:27CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  21. P3 13:26CGYOlli Jokinen: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCGY
24Shots on goal21
1.7Expected goals2.5
57Shot attempts50
22Faceoffs won25
3Power plays5
43Penalty minutes38
20Hits22
16Blocked shots19
3Giveaways13
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.5 xGLAK 1.7 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #977 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

CGY winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).