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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Montréal Canadiens 5, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Montréal Canadiens

5

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL115213214542
FLA210113113436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:19FLAKeith BallardPPAssists: Tomas Vokoun · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:33MTLHal GillAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:08FLANathan HortonAssists: Stephen Weiss, Bryan Allen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:18MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Glen Metropolit · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 5:20MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P2 12:08FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 1:52MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
  8. P3 4:29MTLBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–3
  9. P3 6:03FLARadek DvorakAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:45MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:58FLABryan McCabe: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 8:39FLAKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 8:39MTLMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 17:42MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 0:00FLANathan Horton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  7. P3 0:13FLAJordan Leopold: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 6:30FLAJordan Leopold: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 14:34MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLFLA
42Shots on goal36
2.5Expected goals3.3
62Shot attempts60
26Faceoffs won33
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
19Hits26
9Blocked shots11
3Giveaways10
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.3 xGMTL 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #91 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).