Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.

OTT winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYI0817111012227
OTT01021606043336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:55NYIRob SchrempPPAssists: Mark Streit, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:26OTTChris KellyAssists: Chris Neil, Jarkko Ruutu · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
  3. P2 19:08OTTPeter ReginAssists: Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:56NYIJon SimAssists: Richard Park · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
  2. 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
  3. 3. OTT Mike Fisher scored
  4. 4. NYI Rob Schremp scored
  5. 5. OTT Ryan Shannon scored
  6. 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:53NYIJack Hillen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 4:07OTTMatt Carkner: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 13:11NYIMark Streit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 15:26NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min
  5. P1 0:00OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 0:00OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 0:00NYITim Jackman: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 6:42OTTShean Donovan: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P3 0:56OTTChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 0:56NYIAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 6:13OTTJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Kelly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIOTT
27Shots on goal36
2.5Expected goals4.0
48Shot attempts65
30Faceoffs won30
4Power plays3
10Penalty minutes12
26Hits26
19Blocked shots13
14Giveaways15
8Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 4.0 xGNYI 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #516 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.78 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.

OTT winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).