Thu, Dec 31, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 17 | 17 | 222 |
| DET | 013 | 210 | 212 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:56DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Doug Janik · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 17:56DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Kris Draper, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:12COLBrandon YipPPAssists: Darcy Tucker, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 11:59COLBrandon YipPPAssists: Darcy Tucker, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 16:08DETVille LeinoGWGAssists: Derek Meech, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:37DETDarren HelmENAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.43 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:11DETTomas Holmstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:25COLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
- P1 13:33DETDoug Janik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:58COLBrandon Yip: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:03DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29COLCody McLeod: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:38DETTomas Holmstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:19DETTomas Holmstrom: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:01DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).