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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

San Jose Sharks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (SO)

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS0511619031333
PHX0182807030236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:53SJSKent HuskinsAssists: Frazer McLaren, Jamie McGinn · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:32PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Anders Eriksson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:42PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Peter Mueller, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:29SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  2. 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
  3. 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  4. 4. SJS Dany Heatley stopped
  5. 5. PHX Peter Mueller stopped
  6. 6. SJS Devin Setoguchi stopped
  7. 7. PHX Keith Yandle stopped
  8. 8. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
  9. 9. PHX Robert Lang stopped
  10. 10. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  11. 11. PHX Shane Doan stopped
  12. 12. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:35SJSJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:53PHXJeff Hoggan: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 8:28SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min
  4. P2 10:36SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 13:33SJSKent Huskins: Interference2 min
  6. P2 14:18PHXAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min
  7. P2 15:40SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 5:01PHXLauri Korpikoski: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P3 10:16SJSRob Blake: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 16:08PHXRobert Lang: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lombardi won the faceoff against Pavelski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSPHX
33Shots on goal36
2.4Expected goals3.0
54Shot attempts62
33Faceoffs won26
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
21Hits21
13Blocked shots9
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.0 xGSJS 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #403 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.90 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).