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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Los Angeles Kings 5, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Los Angeles Kings

5

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.

MIN winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK31411015529
MIN0611419229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:35LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Davis Drewiske · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:49LAKAlex FrolovAssists: Michal Handzus, Brandon Segal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:54LAKRyan SmythPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
  4. P2 3:17LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Alex Frolov, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.07 xG4–0
  5. P2 4:50MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.24 xG4–1
  6. P3 13:57MINOwen NolanAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
  7. P3 18:22LAKAlex FrolovENAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 12:12MINAntti Miettinen: Interference2 min
  2. P1 17:53MINDerek Boogaard: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 11:08LAKRob Scuderi: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 0:00LAKScott Parse: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 0:00MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 0:00MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 0:00LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 0:00MINShane Hnidy: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 2:31MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 2:31LAKMatt Greene: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 3:22LAKBrandon Segal: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 9:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  13. P3 14:21LAKRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKMIN
29Shots on goal29
2.1Expected goals2.0
49Shot attempts49
23Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
17Penalty minutes15
22Hits23
11Blocked shots17
1Giveaways6
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.0 xGLAK 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #454 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.77 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.

MIN winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).