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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·United Center, Chicago

New Jersey Devils 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.

CHI winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD0901315127
CHI21411527536

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:44CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.38 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:29CHIBen EagerGWGAssists: Colin Fraser, Tomas Kopecky · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:12CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.16 xG0–3
  4. P3 4:41CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P3 15:11CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
  6. P3 18:27NJDJamie LangenbrunnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 8:20NJDJay Pandolfo: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 14:10NJDColin White: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:10NJDMike Mottau: Holding2 min
  4. P2 11:30CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 13:56CHIJonathan Toews: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P3 2:34CHICam Barker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCHI
27Shots on goal36
2.2Expected goals3.6
49Shot attempts67
25Faceoffs won27
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
14Hits17
19Blocked shots12
4Giveaways3
14Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.6 xGNJD 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHINJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1061 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.52 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.

CHI winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).