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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 31, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM090617122
CGY015113111239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 19:49CGYCraig ConroyAssists: Rene Bourque, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P3 10:07CGYCurtis GlencrossPPGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P3 18:39EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Sam Gagner, Robert Nilsson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 16:45CGYDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 1:40EDMSteve Staios: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 16:02CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 9:29EDMSheldon Souray: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 12:20CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCGY
22Shots on goal39
1.1Expected goals2.1
49Shot attempts64
20Faceoffs won31
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
10Hits15
12Blocked shots18
10Giveaways13
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.1 xGEDM 1.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1076 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.77 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).