Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Vancouver Canucks 3, Dallas Stars 1

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.

DAL winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN0111927327
DAL01008114132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:30VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mason Raymond, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P3 0:37DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:38VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:43VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:14VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:14DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:01DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
  4. P1 8:56VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
  5. P2 18:29VANChristian Ehrhoff: Delaying game2 min
  6. P3 1:24DALMike Modano: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Wandell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANDAL
27Shots on goal32
3.7Expected goals3.0
57Shot attempts58
22Faceoffs won19
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
40Hits49
11Blocked shots14
9Giveaways21
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.0 xGVAN 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #790 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.24 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.

DAL winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).