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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Atlanta Thrashers 5, New York Islanders 6 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

5

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL0541417011527
NYI31721006032636

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:13NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Rob Schremp, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:04NYIJon SimAssists: Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:54NYIRichard ParkAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Doug Weight · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–3
  4. P2 0:50ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 1:29NYITrent HunterAssists: Brendan Witt, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
  6. P2 4:44ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Toby Enstrom, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P2 10:02NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
  8. P2 10:12ATLNik AntropovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Maxim Afinogenov · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
  9. P2 12:58ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Colby Armstrong, Christoph Schubert · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–5
  10. P3 11:23ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Maxim Afinogenov · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Jeff Tambellini scored
  2. 2. ATL Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
  3. 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
  4. 4. ATL Vyacheslav Kozlov scored
  5. 5. NYI Rob Schremp stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:12ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Interference2 min
  2. P1 12:05NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 1:48ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 5:45NYIBruno Gervais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 7:29ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 14:54ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 14:54NYIJon Sim: Diving2 min
  8. P2 17:16NYIJeff Tambellini: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 7:55NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min
  10. P3 10:58NYIJeff Tambellini: Interference2 min · PPG
  11. OT 2:40ATLChristoph Schubert: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNYI
27Shots on goal36
2.8Expected goals4.6
57Shot attempts62
22Faceoffs won34
5Power plays4
10Penalty minutes12
26Hits17
12Blocked shots17
14Giveaways13
10Takeaways20

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.6 xGATL 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #37 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.95 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).