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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Colorado Avalanche 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.

CBJ winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL08115214337
CBJ1811307228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:28CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:46COLKyle CumiskeyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:09CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Kristian Huselius, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:28COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Scott Hannan · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 19:02COLTJ GaliardiGWGAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 11:55COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:19COLScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 13:57CBJR.J. Umberger: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 15:03CBJRick Nash: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 1:34CBJChris Clark: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 2:44CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 2:44COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 8:27CBJChris Clark: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 8:27COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 14:18CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 1:53CBJJakub Voracek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P3 16:38COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Umberger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLCBJ
37Shots on goal28
2.1Expected goals2.0
52Shot attempts48
31Faceoffs won24
5Power plays3
13Penalty minutes17
20Hits27
15Blocked shots8
2Giveaways1
2Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.0 xGCOL 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #534 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.72 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.

CBJ winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).