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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Anaheim Ducks 1, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.

NSH winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA1701009126
NSH01511713335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:45ANAMike BrownAssists: Evgeny Artyukhin, Petteri Nokelainen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:27NSHShea WeberAssists: Jason Arnott, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:11NSHJason ArnottGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P2 7:57NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 10:47ANARyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min
  3. P3 6:05ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 12:05NSHCody Franson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Marchant
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANANSH
26Shots on goal35
1.2Expected goals3.7
43Shot attempts63
22Faceoffs won22
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
14Hits15
15Blocked shots10
8Giveaways14
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.7 xGANA 1.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #835 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.

NSH winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).