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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Edmonton Oilers 1, San Jose Sharks 4

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.

SJS winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM0611007123
SJS2926012427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:10SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Kent Huskins, Torrey Mitchell · Slap, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:18SJSDouglas MurrayGWGAssists: Scott Nichol, Brad Staubitz · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:43SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:06EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:32SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 18:36EDMDustin Penner: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 4:39EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 4:39SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 5:53SJSJody Shelley: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 12:54EDMZack Stortini: Holding2 min
  6. P2 13:05SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 0:36SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 1:26EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 6:56SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min
  10. P3 8:59EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Holding2 min
  11. P3 9:41SJSRyane Clowe: Interference2 min
  12. P3 18:20SJSJay Leach: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 18:20SJSTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 18:20EDMSteve Staios: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 18:20EDMSteve Staios: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMSJS
23Shots on goal27
2.2Expected goals2.5
42Shot attempts51
25Faceoffs won32
5Power plays4
20Penalty minutes22
38Hits30
18Blocked shots13
12Giveaways17
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.5 xGEDM 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #932 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.

SJS winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).