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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 3, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 7

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1531006421
OTT41607310733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:10PHIIan LaperriereAssists: Chris Pronger, Blair Betts · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:52OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Ryan Shannon, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:07OTTChris KellyAssists: Alex Kovalev, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 10:27OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Neil, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P1 12:02OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Filip Kuba, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
  6. P2 1:09PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Arron Asham, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
  7. P2 5:53PHIArron AshamAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
  8. P2 12:17PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Kimmo Timonen · Slap, 0.16 xG4–4
  9. P3 2:57OTTAlex KovalevGWGAssists: Ryan Shannon, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–5
  10. P3 6:17OTTChris KellyAssists: Jarkko Ruutu · Slap, 0.10 xG4–6
  11. P3 12:58OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Mike Fisher, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:28PHISimon Gagne: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:00PHIMike Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 17:41PHIArron Asham: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 10:58OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:10OTTChris Kelly: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P3 4:19PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 4:19OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIOTT
21Shots on goal33
1.7Expected goals3.2
35Shot attempts59
27Faceoffs won37
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
27Hits35
14Blocked shots10
12Giveaways7
7Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.2 xGPHI 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #51 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).