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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 3, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Florida Panthers 6

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT21909022250
FLA18216311635

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:49PITTyler KennedyAssists: Jordan Staal, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:57FLAJordan LeopoldAssists: Nathan Horton, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 17:35FLARadek DvorakAssists: Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:37FLARostislav OleszGWGAssists: Bryan Allen, Gregory Campbell · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:11FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Nathan Horton, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:08FLARadek DvorakAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
  8. P3 19:57FLARadek DvorakENAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 15:59FLAJason Garrison: Boarding2 min
  2. P2 14:53PITMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P3 8:46FLASteve Reinprecht: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 16:02FLACory Stillman: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITFLA
50Shots on goal35
2.7Expected goals3.5
75Shot attempts59
27Faceoffs won25
4Power plays1
2Penalty minutes8
18Hits25
10Blocked shots14
1Giveaways5
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.5 xGPIT 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #337 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.37 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).