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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 3, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Anaheim Ducks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5

Away

Anaheim Ducks

2

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA01101023224
CHI01028310528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:21CHIKris VersteegAssists: John Madden, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:45CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:14CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P3 3:41CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
  5. P3 13:50CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–5
  6. P3 16:39ANAPetteri NokelainenAssists: Sheldon Brookbank · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
  7. P3 17:58ANAPetteri NokelainenAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Evgeny Artyukhin · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 0:22CHIDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:22ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:16CHIDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
  4. P2 6:51CHIBrent Sopel: Holding2 min
  5. P2 11:09ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Elbowing2 min
  6. P3 1:51ANARyan Carter: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P3 14:06ANACorey Perry: Charging2 min
  8. P3 14:06CHIBrent Sopel: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 14:06ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACHI
24Shots on goal28
1.9Expected goals3.4
43Shot attempts63
24Faceoffs won25
2Power plays3
13Penalty minutes11
19Hits17
13Blocked shots12
0Giveaways3
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.4 xGANA 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #497 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).