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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA21001407231
TOR11229010331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:32FLABryan McCabeAssists: Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:31FLABryan McCabePPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P1 10:13TORLee StempniakPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:49TORTomas KaberleAssists: Jamal Mayers, Niklas Hagman · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:51TORAlexei PonikarovskyGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 8:14TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:13FLASteve Reinprecht: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:19FLADominic Moore: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 18:25TORJamal Mayers: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 6:39TORTomas Kaberle: Holding2 min
  6. P3 6:49FLADennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATOR
31Shots on goal31
1.9Expected goals2.4
58Shot attempts65
35Faceoffs won19
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
21Hits18
19Blocked shots16
10Giveaways16
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.4 xGFLA 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #473 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.26 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).