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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Dallas Stars 0, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Dallas Stars

0

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0708013028
NJD11131105427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:02NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Brian Rolston, Dean McAmmond · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:59NJDPatrik EliasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:36NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:07NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:03DALMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 19:42NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 4:43NJDPatrik Elias: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 8:20DALKrys Barch: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 18:11DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 5:15DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 13:28NJDRob Niedermayer: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 13:28DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 16:26NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALNJD
28Shots on goal27
2.1Expected goals1.7
49Shot attempts48
25Faceoffs won28
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
31Hits16
8Blocked shots11
4Giveaways17
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.7 xGDAL 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1179 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).