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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 1

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS41609010435
OTT01111106128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:46BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ference, Johnny Boychuk · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:05BOSDavid KrejciPPGWGAssists: Mark Recchi, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–0
  3. P1 11:37BOSBlake WheelerAssists: David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
  4. P1 13:45BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Derek Morris · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–0
  5. P2 2:41OTTFilip KubaPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (23)
  1. P1 4:23OTTChris Kelly: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:23BOSDennis Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 11:53OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:19OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 19:19OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 19:19BOSSteve Begin: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 19:19BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 0:00BOSVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 0:00BOSVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
  10. P1 0:00OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
  11. P1 0:00OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 1:34BOSBlake Wheeler: Boarding2 min · PPG
  13. P2 3:31OTTAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
  14. P2 6:13BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  15. P2 9:27OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
  16. P2 13:08OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  17. P2 13:08BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 5:42BOSDerek Morris: Interference2 min
  19. P3 6:15OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
  20. P3 6:54BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
  21. P3 10:17OTTChris Neil: Elbowing2 min
  22. P3 10:17OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 10:17BOSJohnny Boychuk: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSOTT
35Shots on goal28
3.5Expected goals2.0
58Shot attempts54
29Faceoffs won30
5Power plays5
33Penalty minutes35
20Hits26
14Blocked shots14
5Giveaways14
12Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.0 xGBOS 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1029 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).