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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 1

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.

NSH winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY01221616334
NSH0100919128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:32CGYDavid MossAssists: Eric Nystrom, Dustin Boyd · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–0
  2. P2 19:42CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nigel Dawes · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
  3. P3 13:45NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:41CGYDaymond LangkowENAssists: Jarome Iginla, Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 13:35NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 16:35CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
  3. P3 4:32NSHAndreas Thuresson: Interference2 min
  4. P3 10:18CGYAdam Pardy: Holding2 min
  5. P3 12:42CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYNSH
34Shots on goal28
4.7Expected goals1.7
64Shot attempts59
22Faceoffs won34
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
20Hits25
17Blocked shots16
11Giveaways12
13Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.7 xGCGY 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1004 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.90 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.

NSH winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).