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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Minnesota Wild 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.

CHI winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN150708120
CHI111110212433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:52MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:26CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Kris Versteeg, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:38CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:04CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brian Campbell, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 9:09CHIMarian HossaAssists: Kris Versteeg, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 11:21MINGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 0:00MINShane Hnidy: Holding2 min
  3. P3 1:56MINGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  4. P3 6:56CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
  5. P3 10:42MINNick Schultz: Delaying game2 min
  6. P3 10:42CHIBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
  7. P3 13:49CHIJohn Madden: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P3 19:46CHITomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Ebbett
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCHI
20Shots on goal33
1.7Expected goals3.3
41Shot attempts53
22Faceoffs won29
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes16
25Hits13
14Blocked shots14
6Giveaways6
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.3 xGMIN 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #897 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.

CHI winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).