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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Phoenix Coyotes 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHX111390812530
EDM0921821401442

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:32PHXRadim VrbataUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:38PHXShane DoanAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Paul Bissonnette · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:37EDMGilbert BrulePPAssists: Denis Grebeshkov, Patrick O'Sullivan · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:45EDMPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Ryan Potulny · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:47PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Anders Eriksson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P2 17:54PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
  7. P3 8:10EDMDenis GrebeshkovAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 8:59EDMDustin PennerAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray · Tip-in, 0.35 xG4–4
  9. OT 1:37PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:14EDMRyan Stone: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 12:14PHXJim Vandermeer: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:35EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 0:14PHXZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 4:54EDMZack Stortini: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 9:39PHXIlya Bryzgalov: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P3 4:55EDMZack Stortini: Boarding2 min
  8. OT 0:49EDMFernando Pisani: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXEDM
30Shots on goal42
3.0Expected goals3.2
55Shot attempts63
28Faceoffs won38
4Power plays2
6Penalty minutes10
26Hits20
12Blocked shots13
28Giveaways24
11Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.2 xGPHX 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #43 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.35 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).