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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.

VAN winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ21318011332
VAN393916724

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:07CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:08CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Kris Russell, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P1 7:47VANRick RypienAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P1 8:11VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P1 16:58VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P2 6:36VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P2 6:53CBJKris RussellAssists: Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P2 13:25VANSami SaloPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
  9. P2 14:53VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Ryan Kesler, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
  10. P3 5:02VANAlexandre BurrowsSHAssists: Ryan Kesler, Shane O'Brien · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 11:54CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 17:03VANChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
  3. P2 0:00CBJMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 3:39VANAlexandre Bolduc: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 5:14VANWillie Mitchell: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 10:32VANKyle Wellwood: Holding2 min
  7. P3 17:23VANChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
  8. P3 18:15CBJKristian Huselius: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Umberger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJVAN
32Shots on goal24
2.0Expected goals2.9
56Shot attempts44
29Faceoffs won28
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
17Hits21
12Blocked shots15
7Giveaways4
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.9 xGCBJ 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #198 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.35 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.

VAN winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).