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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Detroit Red Wings 1, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.

ANA winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET010012117139
ANA21509211435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:37ANASaku KoivuSHUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.33 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:38ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Brett Festerling · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
  3. P3 11:03DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:29ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:52ANAKyle ChipchuraENAssists: Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–4
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 4:40ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 11:03DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 12:47ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 16:10DETBrad May: Holding2 min
  5. P1 18:35ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 18:35DETDoug Janik: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 1:38DETBrad May: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 1:38ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 1:38DETBrad May: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 1:38ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 1:57ANASteve Eminger: Interference2 min
  12. P2 6:44DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
  13. P2 17:05ANAKyle Chipchura: High sticking2 min
  14. P2 17:29DETDerek Meech: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 17:29ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 5:02DETKirk Maltby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  17. P3 18:24ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 18:24DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 18:24ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 18:24DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETANA
39Shots on goal35
3.0Expected goals4.1
57Shot attempts57
34Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
26Penalty minutes26
13Hits19
10Blocked shots5
9Giveaways7
3Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 4.1 xGDET 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANADET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #917 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.

ANA winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).