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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 6, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Dallas Stars 2, New York Rangers 5

Away

Dallas Stars

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

NYR winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1121807227
NYR2101827525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:17DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Marty Turco · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:39NYRSean AveryPPAssists: Matt Gilroy, Michal Rozsival · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:47NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Sean Avery, Erik Christensen · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:07DALJere LehtinenAssists: Brad Richards, Mark Fistric · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 8:23NYRAles KotalikGWGAssists: Sean Avery, Wade Redden · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:57NYRChris DruryAssists: Sean Avery, Michal Rozsival · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:55NYRRyan CallahanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:03DALJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:03NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 8:23NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
  4. P2 10:20DALBrenden Morrow: Holding2 min
  5. P2 14:26NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
  6. P2 15:32NYRChris Higgins: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 17:40DALJames Neal: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:40DALJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P3 2:15NYRSean Avery: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 3:42DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 6:30DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 10:17NYRAles Kotalik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P3 14:57NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALNYR
27Shots on goal25
3.6Expected goals4.1
51Shot attempts47
27Faceoffs won27
6Power plays6
12Penalty minutes22
30Hits33
10Blocked shots16
1Giveaways2
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.1 xGDAL 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #545 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.41 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

NYR winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).