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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 6, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR0901429232
PHI29113310632

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:11PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Jeff Carter, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:09PHIDanny SyvretAssists: Arron Asham · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:13PHIDaniel CarcilloGWGAssists: Blair Betts, Ian Laperriere · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P3 1:22PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
  5. P3 4:14TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Matt Stajan, Ian White · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P3 4:54PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
  7. P3 5:05TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
  8. P3 7:08PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–6
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 2:21TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:21PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:58TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 15:24TORRickard Wallin: Interference2 min
  5. P1 19:20TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 1:55PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 12:40PHIDanny Syvret: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:00PHIOskars Bartulis: Holding2 min
  9. P2 17:15PHIMike Richards: Boarding2 min
  10. P2 19:56TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 2:48TORGarnet Exelby: Fighting5 min · PPG
  12. P3 2:48PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 4:24TORJeff Finger: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 4:24PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 5:06PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 5:06TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 6:39TORFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min
  18. P3 13:31TORGarnet Exelby: Boarding2 min
  19. P3 13:31TORGarnet Exelby: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 13:31PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wallin won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPHI
32Shots on goal32
2.4Expected goals3.1
64Shot attempts54
29Faceoffs won33
4Power plays6
42Penalty minutes38
22Hits19
17Blocked shots23
11Giveaways8
7Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.1 xGTOR 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #942 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.58 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).