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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 6, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 4

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY1100808126
MIN11321319435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:34CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Nigel Dawes, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:47MINEric BelangerPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Nick Schultz · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:38MINKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:23MINEric BelangerAssists: Owen Nolan, Nick Schultz · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:39MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:50CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:53CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:43MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 19:10MINEric Belanger: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 5:08CGYRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 9:12CGYBrandon Prust: Holding2 min
  7. P3 19:41CGYDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYMIN
26Shots on goal35
1.3Expected goals3.0
49Shot attempts65
20Faceoffs won28
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
18Hits26
15Blocked shots11
3Giveaways10
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 3.0 xGCGY 1.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #888 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).