Wed, Jan 6, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 115 | 17 | 335 |
| COL | 19 | 09 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48COLChris StewartPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Milan Hejduk · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 18:10NYIJon SimAssists: Rob Schremp, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 17:48NYIRob SchrempPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 9:37COLMatt HendricksAssists: Brandon Yip, Chris Durno · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 16:43NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:15NYIAndy Sutton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56COLJohn-Michael Liles: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11NYIJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:34NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 10:16COLKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).