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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 7, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Philadelphia Flyers 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

7

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI31421027731
PIT21119119439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:39PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Matt Carle, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:10PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Arron Asham, Darroll Powe · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P1 8:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P1 16:51PHIMatt CarlePPAssists: Chris Pronger, Daniel Brière · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P1 19:04PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P2 1:42PHIChris ProngerAssists: Matt Carle, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
  7. P2 2:56PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Arron Asham, Oskars Bartulis · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–2
  8. P2 10:32PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Luca Caputi · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
  9. P3 9:26PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.08 xG6–3
  10. P3 12:08PITMike RuppAssists: Max Talbot, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.08 xG6–4
  11. P3 19:28PHIMike RichardsENAssists: Darroll Powe, Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.72 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:31PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:49PITLuca Caputi: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 15:01PITEric Godard: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 11:22PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 11:22PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 15:34PHIKimmo Timonen: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 3:28PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIPIT
31Shots on goal39
3.3Expected goals3.1
47Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won34
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
31Hits36
18Blocked shots7
2Giveaways5
4Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.1 xGPHI 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #177 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.46 · 11 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).