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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 7, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.

NSH winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR1150814227
NSH21218114434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:52CARRod Brind'AmourAssists: Jerome Samson, Stephane Yelle · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:45NSHJ-P DumontSHAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:36NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Shea Weber, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:50NSHSteve SullivanGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:16NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.29 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:03CARTom KostopoulosSHAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 5:17NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 9:47CARJerome Samson: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 9:58NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking double minor4 min
  4. P1 10:20NSHRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 11:40CARMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 19:17CARMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 3:23CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 8:52CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 5:45CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 7:10NSHSteve Sullivan: Elbowing2 min
  11. P3 10:03CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 11:03CARAndrew Alberts: Checking from behind5 min
  13. P3 11:03CARAndrew Alberts: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARNSH
27Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals3.9
48Shot attempts64
33Faceoffs won27
4Power plays7
29Penalty minutes10
15Hits23
19Blocked shots11
11Giveaways15
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.9 xGCAR 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #701 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.

NSH winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).