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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 7, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.

EDM winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1151826429
EDM1801216226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:40CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Kristian Huselius, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:59EDMFernando PisaniUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:43CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Raffi Torres, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:36EDMSam GagnerAssists: Denis Grebeshkov, Ryan Stone · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:36CBJKristian HuseliusPPGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
  6. P3 11:21CBJJan HejdaAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Mathieu Roy · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 13:30EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 6:04CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
  3. P2 7:28CBJFreddy Modin: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 3:27EDMSteve Staios: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 8:45EDMRyan Stone: Holding2 min
  6. P3 14:07CBJJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
  7. P3 19:24CBJJan Hejda: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Umberger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJEDM
29Shots on goal26
2.3Expected goals2.5
41Shot attempts65
34Faceoffs won33
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
16Hits17
19Blocked shots6
11Giveaways11
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.5 xGCBJ 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #600 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.

EDM winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).