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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 7, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

St. Louis Blues 2, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.

ANA winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL1606110222
ANA0911139429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:35STLBarret JackmanSHAssists: Jay McClement · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:44ANAJames WisniewskiAssists: Steve Eminger, Dan Sexton · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 0:56STLBarret JackmanAssists: David Backes, Eric Brewer · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 8:18ANABobby RyanAssists: Saku Koivu · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 17:20ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:17ANATodd MarchantENAssists: Troy Bodie, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:19STLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:23ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:23STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 3:48STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
  5. P2 4:32STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 14:13STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 18:22ANAScott Niedermayer: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 18:22ANAScott Niedermayer: Kneeing2 min
  9. P2 0:00STLBrad Winchester: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 4:56ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLANA
22Shots on goal29
1.3Expected goals3.5
35Shot attempts61
29Faceoffs won26
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
20Hits29
15Blocked shots7
5Giveaways6
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.5 xGSTL 1.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #506 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.79 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.

ANA winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).