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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 8, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

NJD winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL142515414
NJD014011210235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:58TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:13TBLBrandon BochenskiPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Kurtis Foster · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:04TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P3 8:36NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P3 9:45TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brandon Bochenski · Slap, 0.14 xG4–1
  6. P3 19:26NJDZach PariseAssists: Travis Zajac, Jamie Langenbrunner · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:16NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:16TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:46NJDRod Pelley: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 8:35TBLMattias Ohlund: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 17:14TBLVincent Lecavalier: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 0:38NJDBryce Salvador: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 4:32NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 13:00NJDBrian Rolston: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P2 18:22NJDJay Pandolfo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 6:25TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 17:16TBLZenon Konopka: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00McAmmond won the faceoff against Szczechura
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLNJD
14Shots on goal35
1.4Expected goals2.3
28Shot attempts54
24Faceoffs won26
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes15
11Hits12
13Blocked shots7
4Giveaways8
4Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.3 xGTBL 1.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #721 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

NJD winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).