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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 8, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Colorado Avalanche 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL01405111130
CAR181804220

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:30CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Rod Brind'Amour · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:37CARRay WhitneyGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Aaron Ward · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P3 19:44COLBrandon YipAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 2:04CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 3:58COLDarcy Tucker: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 3:58CARTuomo Ruutu: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 5:01COLCody McLeod: Charging2 min
  5. P1 6:06CARAndrew Alberts: Holding2 min
  6. P1 7:11COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 11:04CARStephane Yelle: Interference2 min
  8. P1 14:20CARNiclas Wallin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P1 16:20COLMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
  10. P1 16:20CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min
  11. P1 17:54CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
  12. P1 17:54COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
  13. P1 17:54CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
  14. P1 18:57COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
  15. P1 18:57CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  16. P2 0:41COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
  17. P2 0:41CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
  18. P2 17:50COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  19. P3 4:03CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
  20. P3 17:31COLBrandon Yip: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLCAR
30Shots on goal20
2.9Expected goals3.8
61Shot attempts45
25Faceoffs won40
6Power plays4
27Penalty minutes31
29Hits25
11Blocked shots14
5Giveaways2
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.8 xGCOL 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1079 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).