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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 8, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 4

Away

New York Islanders

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.

DAL winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI281707322
DAL11031503428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:44DALToby PetersenAssists: Trevor Daley, Jeff Woywitka · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:16NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Trent Hunter, Rick DiPietro · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:19NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P2 4:18DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, Jere Lehtinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:47NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.28 xG3–2
  6. P2 8:11DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P2 16:47DALBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mark Fistric · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
  1. P3 3:01NYIAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
  2. P3 4:05DALLoui Eriksson: Elbowing2 min
  3. P3 10:13DALKrys Barch: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIDAL
22Shots on goal28
2.5Expected goals1.8
41Shot attempts52
22Faceoffs won26
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
23Hits32
8Blocked shots10
12Giveaways9
2Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 1.8 xGNYI 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #471 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.71 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.

DAL winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).