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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 8, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

CGY winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ161818322
CGY1110615222

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:25CBJRaffi TorresAssists: Antoine Vermette, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:47CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:03CBJJan HejdaAssists: Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:22CBJAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Raffi Torres, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P3 11:59CGYRene BourqueAssists: Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:14CGYNigel Dawes: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:00CBJKristian Huselius: Holding2 min
  3. P1 18:56CBJMathieu Garon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P3 5:46CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 19:57CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Umberger won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJCGY
22Shots on goal22
1.2Expected goals1.9
33Shot attempts55
25Faceoffs won28
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
13Hits9
17Blocked shots7
7Giveaways12
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.9 xGCBJ 1.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #756 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.31 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

CGY winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).