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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Colorado Avalanche 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.

BUF winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
COL21111404014430
BUF07111215023335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:35COLMatt DucheneAssists: Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:28COLMatt DucheneAssists: Brandon Yip, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P2 17:05BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Paul Gaustad, Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:07COLBrandon YipAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan Wilson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 9:19BUFThomas VanekAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
  6. P3 15:48BUFJochen HechtAssists: Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
  2. 2. COL Milan Hejduk scored
  3. 3. BUF Tim Connolly scored
  4. 4. COL Wojtek Wolski stopped
  5. 5. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
  6. 6. COL Chris Stewart stopped
  7. 7. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
  8. 8. COL Matt Duchene scored
  9. 9. BUF Derek Roy stopped
  10. 10. COL Paul Stastny stopped
  11. 11. BUF Tyler Myers stopped
  12. 12. COL Brandon Yip stopped
  13. 13. BUF Clarke MacArthur stopped
  14. 14. COL Darcy Tucker stopped
  15. 15. BUF Jochen Hecht scored
  16. 16. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
  17. 17. BUF Adam Mair stopped
  18. 18. COL John-Michael Liles stopped
  19. 19. BUF Tim Kennedy stopped
  20. 20. COL TJ Galiardi stopped
  21. 21. BUF Henrik Tallinder stopped
  22. 22. COL Matt Hendricks scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:44COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:44BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:44BUFClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
  4. P1 8:19BUFAdam Mair: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 15:26COLCraig Anderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P1 17:16COLKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 11:18COLMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 12:07BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 12:35BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  10. P2 15:08COLJohn-Michael Liles: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 19:01BUFSteve Montador: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Hecht
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLBUF
30Shots on goal35
3.1Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts67
28Faceoffs won35
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes15
10Hits9
14Blocked shots12
8Giveaways16
4Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.0 xGCOL 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #105 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.30 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.

BUF winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).