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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.

TOR winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT11521816439
TOR18013022143

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:24PITBill GuerinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Mark Eaton · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:48TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:44PITSergei GoncharPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bill Guerin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 17:17PITSergei GoncharAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 3:49PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Sergei Gonchar · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 11:06TORGarnet Exelby: Clipping2 min
  2. P1 17:51PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 8:45TORFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 14:05TORJeff Finger: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:44PITSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 8:46PITRuslan Fedotenko: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 12:55PITMax Talbot: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Wallin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITTOR
39Shots on goal43
2.8Expected goals3.2
57Shot attempts93
34Faceoffs won25
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
17Hits15
33Blocked shots6
9Giveaways15
12Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.2 xGPIT 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #869 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.

TOR winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).