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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Florida Panthers 3, Ottawa Senators 0

Away

Florida Panthers

3

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.

OTT winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA182605319
OTT0408012024

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:54FLANathan HortonGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:45FLARostislav OleszAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 16:08FLARostislav OleszAssists: Cory Stillman · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:06OTTAlex Kovalev: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:24OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 13:30FLADominic Moore: Holding2 min
  4. P1 16:55FLARostislav Olesz: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 8:45OTTChris Campoli: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 2:00FLARostislav Olesz: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 5:33OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 5:33FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 10:54OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 11:44OTTMike Fisher: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 14:17FLADominic Moore: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 16:51OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 16:51OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 16:51OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 16:51OTTJarkko Ruutu: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 16:51FLABryan McCabe: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAOTT
19Shots on goal24
1.5Expected goals1.8
36Shot attempts59
35Faceoffs won25
5Power plays4
23Penalty minutes39
29Hits27
21Blocked shots10
7Giveaways12
10Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.8 xGFLA 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1111 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.

OTT winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).