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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Washington Capitals 8, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Washington Capitals

8

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH37117413837
ATL01811506139

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:44WSHMike KnubleAssists: Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:47WSHAlexander SeminSHGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:41WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Mike Green · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
  4. P2 4:43WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–0
  5. P2 14:13ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Pavel Kubina, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
  6. P3 6:58WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tom Poti · Snap, 0.11 xG5–1
  7. P3 9:35WSHDavid SteckelAssists: Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–1
  8. P3 16:08WSHTom PotiPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Brian Pothier · Snap, 0.10 xG7–1
  9. P3 16:50WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Brendan Morrison, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.18 xG8–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 12:13WSHBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 15:19WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
  3. P1 19:13ATLColby Armstrong: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 16:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 16:19ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 14:48ATLPavel Kubina: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fleischmann won the faceoff against Reasoner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHATL
37Shots on goal39
3.2Expected goals3.2
52Shot attempts65
32Faceoffs won36
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
18Hits19
14Blocked shots11
6Giveaways18
8Takeaways25

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.2 xGWSH 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1035 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.71 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).