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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Chicago Blackhawks 5, Minnesota Wild 6 (SO)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Minnesota Wild

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CHI362609041525
MIN160647022621

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:22CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Brian Campbell, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:29MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Martin Havlat, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:17CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P1 14:55CHIKris VersteegAssists: John Madden, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
  5. P2 10:46CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
  6. P2 17:35CHIMarian HossaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
  7. P3 6:44MINKim JohnssonAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Derek Boogaard · Deflected, 0.09 xG5–2
  8. P3 7:29MINMikko KoivuAssists: Greg Zanon, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
  9. P3 8:49MINMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Antti Miettinen · Slap, 0.04 xG5–4
  10. P3 18:27MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Eric Belanger, Owen Nolan · Slap, 0.02 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
  2. 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
  3. 3. MIN Guillaume Latendresse stopped
  4. 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
  5. 5. MIN Marek Zidlicky stopped
  6. 6. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
  7. 7. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
  8. 8. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
  9. 9. MIN Eric Belanger stopped
  10. 10. CHI Kris Versteeg stopped
  11. 11. MIN Kyle Brodziak stopped
  12. 12. CHI Andrew Ladd stopped
  13. 13. MIN Cal Clutterbuck stopped
  14. 14. CHI Troy Brouwer stopped
  15. 15. MIN Owen Nolan scored
  16. 16. CHI John Madden stopped
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 19:45MINKim Johnsson: Holding2 min
  2. P2 9:46MINAndrew Brunette: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:18CHIKris Versteeg: Holding2 min
  4. P3 8:21CHIDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIMIN
25Shots on goal21
1.5Expected goals1.6
45Shot attempts40
29Faceoffs won34
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
12Hits46
13Blocked shots13
2Giveaways13
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.6 xGCHI 1.5 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #14 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.21 · 9 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).