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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Vancouver Canucks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY114112011033340
VAN151609012221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:36CGYRene BourqueAssists: Cory Sarich, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:09VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:41VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:54CGYJamie LundmarkAssists: Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. VAN Kyle Wellwood scored
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes scored
  3. 3. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
  5. 5. VAN Mason Raymond scored
  6. 6. CGY Jamie Lundmark scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:45VANShane O'Brien: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 14:26CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 17:21CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 17:21VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 9:50CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 9:50VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 12:08VANShane O'Brien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P2 15:34CGYDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 15:34VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 17:03CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 0:00CGYMark Giordano: Misconduct10 min
  12. P2 0:00VANMason Raymond: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 7:17VANTanner Glass: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nystrom won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYVAN
40Shots on goal21
2.5Expected goals1.7
72Shot attempts50
27Faceoffs won40
3Power plays2
26Penalty minutes28
39Hits22
18Blocked shots19
2Giveaways7
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 1.7 xGCGY 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #626 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.56 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).