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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 9, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

St. Louis Blues 4, Los Angeles Kings 3

Away

St. Louis Blues

4

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.

LAK winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL19112211432
LAK0101628324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:14STLBrad WinchesterAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:09LAKBrandon SegalAssists: Jarret Stoll, Rob Scuderi · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:54STLDavid PerronAssists: Jay McClement, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:35STLT.J. OshieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
  5. P3 5:21STLB.J. CrombeenGWGAssists: Jay McClement, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
  6. P3 12:19LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Rob Scuderi · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
  7. P3 16:08LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jarret Stoll · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:14STLPatrik Berglund: Illegal substitution2 min
  2. P1 3:59STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 6:42LAKMatt Greene: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 6:42STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 8:54LAKMichal Handzus: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 8:00STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 19:30STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 1:57LAKSean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 1:57STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:29LAKRaitis Ivanans: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 8:43LAKMatt Greene: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 8:43STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 15:04STLBarret Jackman: Holding2 min · PPG
  14. P3 19:57LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Richardson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLLAK
32Shots on goal24
2.9Expected goals2.3
55Shot attempts49
21Faceoffs won34
3Power plays5
25Penalty minutes21
22Hits36
6Blocked shots10
4Giveaways16
3Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.3 xGSTL 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #330 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.

LAK winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).