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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 10, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Ottawa Senators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT01616010132
CAR05213215433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:04OTTChris KellyAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Jonathan Cheechoo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:44CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:52CARRod Brind'AmourGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Jiri Tlusty · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:32CARBrett CarsonAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 15:43CAREric StaalAssists: Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:31OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 3:49CARJiri Tlusty: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 5:12CARAaron Ward: Charging2 min
  4. P2 10:16OTTAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 17:03OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 17:03CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Regin won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTCAR
32Shots on goal33
3.0Expected goals2.5
54Shot attempts62
34Faceoffs won34
2Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
31Hits32
14Blocked shots13
5Giveaways7
3Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.5 xGOTT 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CAROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #867 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).