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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 10, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Anaheim Ducks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA260412312
CHI09018116143

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:29ANACorey PerryPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:39ANASaku KoivuGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Dan Sexton · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P3 15:07CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:34ANATeemu SelanneENAssists: Saku Koivu, Todd Marchant · Backhand, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 7:03CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 18:21CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:54ANAMike Brown: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:21CHITomas Kopecky: Interference2 min
  5. P2 12:56ANAScott Niedermayer: Holding2 min
  6. P3 3:49ANAMike Brown: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 13:13ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACHI
12Shots on goal43
1.5Expected goals2.7
24Shot attempts73
21Faceoffs won30
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
16Hits22
16Blocked shots10
6Giveaways5
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.7 xGANA 1.5 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1005 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.90 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.

CHI winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).