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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 11, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
COL0621004012321
CGY16118017051246

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:24CGYRene BourqueAssists: Daymond Langkow, Nigel Dawes · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:59CGYDustin BoydAssists: Brian McGrattan, Brandon Prust · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:16COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Milan Hejduk · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:17COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. COL Milan Hejduk scored
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes stopped
  3. 3. COL Matt Duchene stopped
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
  5. 5. COL Chris Stewart scored
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:20CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:20COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 1:03CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 3:42COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 3:42CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 3:47COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 3:47CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 9:38CGYRene Bourque: Boarding2 min
  9. P1 17:15COLKyle Cumiskey: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 12:39CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min · PPG
  11. P3 7:03COLScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 14:43CGYAdam Pardy: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 19:01COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min
  14. OT 0:43COLPaul Stastny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLCGY
21Shots on goal46
1.6Expected goals3.9
41Shot attempts84
27Faceoffs won33
4Power plays4
23Penalty minutes23
11Hits19
27Blocked shots8
16Giveaways9
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.9 xGCOL 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #299 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.79 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).