Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 12, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR151726418
TOR111114015240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:09CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joni Pitkanen · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:52TORLee StempniakAssists: John Mitchell · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:51TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:52CARBrandon SutterAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.43 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:34CARPatrick DwyerGWGAssists: Rod Brind'Amour, Joni Pitkanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:16CARRay WhitneyENAssists: Eric Staal, Aaron Ward · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:27CARAaron Ward: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:36TORJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:47TORViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 3:13CARRod Brind'Amour: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P3 16:51CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARTOR
18Shots on goal40
2.8Expected goals3.3
44Shot attempts63
16Faceoffs won24
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
22Hits17
12Blocked shots14
12Giveaways14
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.3 xGCAR 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #627 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.49 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).