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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 12, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Dallas Stars 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.

PHI winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0819213330
PHI11141017628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:08PHIScott HartnellAssists: Matt Carle, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.52 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:56DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:32PHIDarroll PoweAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:53PHIKimmo TimonenSHAssists: Ian Laperriere, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:01PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Simon Gagne, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 13:00PHIIan LaperriereAssists: Darroll Powe, Daniel Carcillo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
  7. P3 10:55PHISimon GagneAssists: Daniel Brière, Mike Richards · Snap, 0.14 xG1–6
  8. P3 12:47DALSteve OttAssists: Jere Lehtinen, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–6
  9. P3 16:06DALSteve OttAssists: Stephane Robidas, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:17DALSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 4:15DALMaxime Fortunus: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 15:15PHISimon Gagne: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:03PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 7:01PHIDarroll Powe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 8:55DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 8:55DALBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 16:01PHIIan Laperriere: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 16:01DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 16:01PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 6:46PHIOskars Bartulis: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALPHI
30Shots on goal28
3.5Expected goals2.7
60Shot attempts43
33Faceoffs won22
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes15
27Hits20
9Blocked shots19
7Giveaways7
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.7 xGDAL 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #368 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.98 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.

PHI winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).