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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 12, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Ottawa Senators 1, Atlanta Thrashers 6

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1501709131
ATL3142618628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:36ATLEric BoultonPPAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Todd White · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:01OTTPeter ReginAssists: Chris Neil, Jarkko Ruutu · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:08ATLPavel KubinaGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:31ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Chris Thorburn, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 2:02ATLTodd WhiteAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P2 9:43ATLToby EnstromAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
  7. P3 0:14ATLBryan LittleAssists: Jim Slater, Ondrej Pavelec · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:47OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:46ATLBoris Valabik: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:46OTTShean Donovan: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 5:01ATLChristoph Schubert: Boarding5 min
  5. P1 5:01ATLChristoph Schubert: Game misconduct10 min
  6. P1 8:19OTTAlex Kovalev: Slashing2 min
  7. P1 9:21OTTAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
  8. P2 4:33ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 4:33OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 6:32ATLColby Armstrong: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 15:00ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P2 15:00OTTJarkko Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 10:43OTTShean Donovan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P3 14:34OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 14:34ATLEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 16:45OTTShean Donovan: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTATL
31Shots on goal28
2.6Expected goals1.9
50Shot attempts45
30Faceoffs won28
2Power plays5
32Penalty minutes39
7Hits14
9Blocked shots10
4Giveaways8
13Takeaways26

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.9 xGOTT 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #910 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).