Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 12, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Nashville Predators 5, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Nashville Predators

5

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH31116111528
EDM013016311340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:59NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Jones, Cal O'Reilly · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:27NSHMarcel GocAssists: Shea Weber, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:02NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Ryan Jones, Kevin Klein · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG3–0
  4. P2 6:40NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
  5. P3 7:22EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Ryan Potulny, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
  6. P3 14:29EDMRyan PotulnyPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
  7. P3 16:59NSHRyan JonesPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Cal O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.17 xG5–2
  8. P3 19:39EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Robert Nilsson, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.20 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P3 13:02NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P3 14:59EDMEthan Moreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P3 18:49NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 19:26NSHPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHEDM
28Shots on goal40
3.1Expected goals3.4
53Shot attempts80
33Faceoffs won34
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
6Hits19
25Blocked shots15
20Giveaways22
10Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.4 xGNSH 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #374 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).